The early morning sun hit me square in the eyes.

That paired with the sound of crashing waves in the distance coming in through the opened salt stained windows was as good of an alarm clock as I could ask for.

Mother nature was telling me it was time to wake up, I abided.

Still groggy and covered in sand from the beach bonfire the night before, I rolled out of bed. The wooden shack floor gave its familiar good morning creek as I took my first step in my morning routine: light stretching followed by coffee.

I stepped outside to enjoy the overly strong brew in the hammock and felt it…a sense so familiar after having grown up along the New Jersey shore it sent goosebumps up my arms.

There was a late summer chill in the air, and this time of the year in the northeast it could only mean one thing: waves were coming.

I rushed back inside, grabbed my laptop, pulled up surf forecast to confirm my intuition.

A cold front was working its way down from the north, creating what’s known as a nor’easter thanks to the weather system's collision with the warmer waters.

Best part, its arrival was the holiday weekend.

Not only would the storm clear our beach towns of unwanted tourists from North Jersey and NYC, but we’d also have 10-foot swells to ride. A drastic shift in fortune, after a summer full of obnoxious tourists we call “bennys” and choppy 3- to 5-foot waves.

The moment I had been anticipating all year was finally here, and there was only one thing left to do—wax up my board and prepare for the storm.

This past week I’ve felt a similar “big wave breeze” taking place in the Bitcoin market, telling me the storm of volatility we’ve been so eagerly anticipating might finally be ready to make landfall.

Let’s dive into some options data below to see if we can get a forecast on when it might hit.

Tide Shift
What a difference a week makes.

Just last week we were discussing how the volatility crush regime we’d been experiencing since BTC peaked in March was frustrating options buyers to the point of capitulation.

That all changed last Wednesday morning when the CPI report we mentioned last week as a potential catalyst fulfilled the prophecy and expanded BTC’s price outside of the long held range between its 100-day moving average (MA) support and 50-day MA resistance.

As the old adage goes: “Never short a boring market.”
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